This post comes to us courtesy of our friend Oregon Matt. It is about contrails. There is math involved, some intimidating formulas presented, but the kind of formulas where all of us who took high school math could solve by inserting values. It’s not terribly difficult, but I don’t expect anyone to go running to the link by Clifford E. Carnicom just to see the formulas.
A little background about me. I have long operated on the assumption that contrails depend on the amount of moisture in the sky. If there’s a lot, then we see long tails behind jets flying over, and if the air is dry the contrails dissipate right away. Also, I assume that in addition to water vapor, the stuff coming out of the end of jet planes also contains nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and other invisible stuff. But according to Carnicom, what we see is virtually 100% water vapor.
When water comes out of a jet aircraft it is invisible. However the temperature at the elevation that jet aircraft fly is often in the area of -50°C below zero. So when the water vapor hits the air, crystals form. After that, the ice crystals are heated to the melting point by solar radiation. After that, crystals again form water vapor, and are invisible. Carnicom uses the following formula to calculate how much time it should take for a contrail to disappear.
t(sec) = ((d(u) * (9.17E-13) * (4.21dT + 335) J cm^3 gm kg m^3 s
m^2) / (Watts * 1E-12 J m^2 m^3 cm^3 gm kg)
I could list what the variables mean, or you can do what I did, just read the paper which is short and understandable to the non-mathematician. The key variable is “t”, or time that it takes for an ice crystal to form, liquefy, and vaporize. It depends on the size of the crystal, which can be anywhere from one micron to one hundred. Obviously, most ice crystals in contrails will fall somewhere in the middle of that. Also note, the ice crystals that form clouds are far, far smaller than those that form contrails, perhaps 1/100th the size. So the notion that contrails become clouds is wrong. Here are the results of the the math as worked out by Carnicorn:
1-50 600 1
10 -50 600 8
30 -50 600 25
50 -50 600 42
100 -50 600 83
1 -40 400 1
10 -40 400 12
30 -40 400 35
50 -40 400 58
100 -40 400 115
1 -30 700 1
10 -30 700 6
30 -30 700 18
50 -30 700 33
100 -30 700 60
It can be read as follows (see last item): a 100 micron diameter ice crystal subjected to temperatures of -30°C and solar radiation of 700 W per square meter will dissolve and evaporate in 60 seconds.
According to Carnicom, there are no exceptions. When we see contrails in the air something is going on. I remember some time ago Miles Mathis addressed this issue, concluding that contrails that hang around for unduly long periods of time are really just a form of getting rid of industrial waste. That could well be. Others might theorize that we are being drugged, perhaps dumbed down, which would explain why so many millions of people flocked to be vaccinated.
Below I’m going to show a couple of pictures furnished by Oregon Matt, so you can see the kind of problems people in other parts of the world and country are having. Here in Colorado we rarely see more than a few contrails at any given time., but we do see them last for long periods of time.
As you can see, contrails are much bigger issue than I ever thought they were.
Some of our readers here are well versed in engineering and the other sciences, so the math about contrails probably will not trouble them as much as it did me.