The above chart is a summary of various hurricane models predicting the future course of Hurricane Rafeal. I got it from an article at Watts Up With That by Kip Hansen, whose cv appears to be a Chaologist, or someone who studies chaos theory. The black spot above Cuba is the 24-hour point for the storm, and the diverging lines thereafter are predictions of its future course by the models.
As you can see, nobody knows. Why it seems almost … chaotic.
Hansen’s article is called Why Numerical Models Fail at Long-Term Climate Prediction. He warns us at the beginning that the article is going to be long, but my oh my did it ever zoom right by. It is a fascinating summary of why there is one thing we don’t know about climate: the future. If you are interested in why IPCC climate models diverge so much from one another, take a look at the pictures below.
Those are 30 results of experiments with climate models done by Jennifer Kay and Clara Deser at the University of Colorado in Boulder in 2016. Each one varied from the one before by less than one-trillionth of one degree. Yet look at the differences! They are projections of winter temperature trends (not actual temperatures) from 1963 to 2012. Number 32, OBS, is what actually took place.
This leads to what is known in climate circles as part of the [Edward] Lorenz System:
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Tell that to the IPCC, but honestly, I think that august body knows that Lorenz is correct. IPCC makes predictions and then gives them low, moderate or high confidence when the only thing that can be applied to its work and all those climate models they run is zero confidence.
Nobody know the future of our planet’s climate. IPCC is a political body doing propaganda, and should at least be ignored if not dismantled.
I urge that you read Hansen’s article, and have as much fun as I did doing so. If you do, you will come to understand the title of this post.
Piece of Mindful 
Chaos theory = we have no fucking idea what we’re doing but we love to grift and would like a government grant. I remember I tried reading a book on chaos theory and evolution when i started grad school, just a complete mess of incomprehensible math.
By the way Mark, the fight is far from over. Listening to WZBC, the college radio station of my alma mater, I heard the DJs list the classes they were taking. Both listed taking several real science classes, along with Marxism and Marxist theory, and Climate Change and Social Justice. This is what we’re up against. The grifters at the university level will not give up without a fight, they are one trick ponies who are nothing without climate change fraud. We need to prepare for the rats coming out of their holes when we fumigate their ivory tower nest.
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Climate Change, Displacement and Human Rights – School of Social Work (SSW)
For $35 you too can have a certificate on Climate Change, Displacement, and Human Rights. The fraud never ends.
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“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
The IPCC folks know this full well because the above quotation actually comes from the IPCC. You will find it buried in the Executive Summary on this page of one of their reports.
https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/index.php?idp=501
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You’re right. That’s from IPCC. They are either citing Lorenz without attribution, or Lorenz the opposite. In that long tract you give us, that is the only non-qualified statement.
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I’d like to weigh in on the absurdity of using models to predict the temperature, or climate of the earth. In my job past few years I needed to perform machine learning and modeling of chemical reactions. So “modeling”, which really means least squares or principal component analysis of chemical system, is a field of chemistry/chemical engineering, in simple terms, that takes the input of a number of variables from a training set, in order to make predictions on a “real time” chemical system. This works well when there are limited number of variables, for example less than 10, that can be reasonably predicted. So typically, this would be used in a closed system, where the inputs and beginning state are well defined. Once the number of variables, and required inputs (temperature, CO2, cloud cover, solar flux, volcanic activity, water: liquid, vapor and solid phases) – assuming these are measured accurately on a large number of points across the Earth) are input into the model, it in theory should predict certain variables with reasonable accuracy, if the model is validated. However the number of inputs for a good model of the Earth is overwhelming, so it is a completely intractable problem, making predictions with any accuracy completely impossible. This a fact, not opinion.
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Increased volcanic eruptions on Earth means that we are approaching a new mini ice age ❄️. The Beaufort Gyre belt in the Atlantic Ocean is also involved in the creation of ice ages. So we don’t have global warming. But cooling. Something the idiots who scream stop oil exploration will also notice. Talk about low intelligence. Simply terrifying. – that these monkeys will die of hunger or frostbite, while they are still calling for a stop to oil exploration. And, as of today, there is no alternative to oil. As well as that oil, reproduces itself. Of which few know. – Last mini ice age, was caused by massive volcanic eruption, outside Peru. The summer of the year 1816 was lost due to a large volcanic eruption in Indonesia. Where food could not be grown in the northern hemisphere. With the result that many died of starvation. The oil reproduces, if you leave at least 10 percent of the oil from the source. If you take 100 percent of the oil, reproduction naturally stops. Propagation. Sperm cells near a uterus give life. Energy, vibrations and frequencies are also the key behind the oil’s reproduction🖤🖤🖤 The heavy water from Rukan that Hitler was after was sold to Israel for cheap money to make double clouds with something in ❄️☔️⛈🌬🌊🌫 In the end it becomes that’s when Haarp takes and crushes the world with that is when the end is done. End of John’s Revelation. What would happen if coal, oil and gas suddenly disappeared? At least 4 billion people would starve to death within a short time, several experts say.
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