It’s Not All Good

Al Franken went down, but there’s sure to be a recount. He wasn’t the best candidate anyway, but Norm Coleman may be the next Ted Stevens. (Seems his family has a secret revenue stream.) Speaking of Stevens, Alaska flipped us the bird, reelecting him in spite of seven felony convictions. Saxby Chambliss won, but there’s mysterious doings in Georgia. Gordon Smith is up in Oregon, will probably win. Michelle Bachman won, proving that you can be a very (very) dumb conservative and still get elected. (I live in Roger Koopman’s old district. Don’t need to remind me.)

Can’t have it all.

Note: Apparently Chambliss did not get the necessary 50% to win in Georgia, and there will be a runoff. Max Cleland, the triple amputee Vietnam vet who lost to Chambliss and Karl Rove and the electronic machines in 2002 and was compared to Osama bin Laden, may yet be vindicated.

Phew!

I rest easy. I’ll be following the exit polls, but it looks like the pre-election polls have held. This is one of those few times in life when an election pretty much goes the way I want – I remember 1980 feeling this way as Reagan won and swept the senate. I never thought then that I’d be on the other side of the aisle someday.

What a wonderful night.

Imagine More …

Suppose McCain squeaks this one out, but that it smells bad, with polls overwhelmingly supporting Obama and mysterious late-night wins in battleground states. Imagine the blogs alive with talk of election fraud, the exit polls mysteriously off again with vote results far outside the margin of error, and all missing on the Republican side.

Imagine the black neighborhoods of the inner cities thinking that they’ve been denied once again. Imagine civil unrest. Since we no longer have a posse comitatus law, Bush calls out the military to enforce order. But riots break out in major cities, and some Democratic officials finally suspect something is amiss with our election system, but they do nothing – no recounts, no court challenges. There’s war in the streets, and right wingers, fully armed and angry, take it upon themselves to help restore order. There are unsolved murders. Rush and Hannity incite civil violence, Gordon Liddy reminds them to aim for the head.

Then we settle down and go back to sleep again.

Here’s what Bush has given us: Two unwinnable wars, an economy in the tank, huge income disparities, massive deficits, world wide contempt for the U.S. and its policies, a shredded Bill of Rights, and an electoral system that no longer reliably counts votes.

Four more years. I hope I’m wrong.

Imagine …

Imagine the following scenario:

Obama wins all the states where he currently holds sizable leads – 228 electoral votes. In addition, he wins New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21), Minnesota (10), and Nevada (5). That would give him 269 electoral votes. Needed to win: 270.

McCain wins all the states where he currently holds sizable leads – 132 electoral votes. In addition, given our electronic voting machines’ propensity to lean Republican, he wins all of the following contested states: Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Florida (27), Indiana (11), North Dakota (3), Virginia (15). That gives him 259. Imagine that he also manages to pluck Colorado, where there has been a serious Republican-led voter purge over the last two years, picking up an additional 9. That gives him 266.

He would need three electoral votes to tie Obama- Montana. The latest poll I saw has it virtually a dead heat, with Ron Paul and Bob Barr being the wild cards. It is possible that Montana goes for Obama, and it’s over. But in this scenario if McCain wins Montana, it’s a dead heat, and goes to the House of Representatives, where, alas, Obama would probably win. (You never know, what with Blue Dogs and all.)

That’s one possibility. Governor Schweitzer, no slouch at politics, thinks that if Paul/Barr take 6% of the Montana vote, Obama could squeak it out. We might give him his victory.

Imagine this scenario: We have a popular vote landslide for Obama (where he leads, his leads are substantial – California 58-34, New York 62-32), and a McCain electoral vote victory. Would the American people be satisfied with that? Would McCain be a lame duck from day one? Would Sarah get a new wardrobe?

I’ve pretty much resigned myself to a McCain victory – we are at the mercy of these machines. Even where there are paper ballots and electronic scanning, there have been irregularities with the scanning results, and little diligence in recounting (See: Clinton victory, New Hampshire primary). So I take heart knowing that even if McCain steals this election, he won’t be very effective at advancing the Bush agenda.

Prediction: McCain 290, Obama 248 (Pennsylvania mysteriously flips to McCain around 1AM.

And Now For Something Completely Different …

Alexander Cockburn at Counterpunch:

In these last days I’ve been scraping around, trying to muster a single positive reason to encourage a vote for Obama. Please note my accent on the positive, since the candidate himself has couched his appeal in this idiom. Why vote for Obama-Biden, as opposed to against the McCain-Palin ticket?

“Obama invokes change. Yet never has the dead hand of the past had a “reform” candidate so firmly by the windpipe.

“Is it possible to confront America’s problems without talking about the arms budget, now entirely out of control? The Pentagon is spending more than at any point since the end of World War II. In “real dollars” – admittedly an optimistic concept these days — the $635 billion appropriated in fiscal 2007 is 5 percent above the previous all-time high, reached in 1952. Depending on how you count them, the Empire has somewhere between 700 and 1,000 overseas bases.

“Obama wants to enlarge the armed services by 92,000. He pledges to escalate the US war in Afghanistan; to attack Pakistan’s sovereign territory if it obstructs any unilateral US mission to kill Osama bin Laden; and to wage a war against terror in a hundred countries, creating for this purpose a new international intelligence and law enforcement “infrastructure” to take down terrorist networks. A fresh start? Where does this differ from Bush’s commitment to Congress on September 20, 2001, to an ongoing “war on terror” against “every terrorist group of global reach” and “any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism”?

“If elected he will be prisoner of his promise that on his watch Afghanistan will not be lost, nor the white man’s burden shirked.

“In the event of Obama’s victory, the most immediate consequence overseas will most likely be brusque imperial reassertion.

“In February, seeking a liberal profile in the primaries, Obama stood against warrantless wiretapping. His support for liberty did not survive its second trimester; he aborted it with a vote for warrantless wiretapping. The man who voted to reaffirm the awful Patriot Act declared that ‘the ability to monitor and track individuals who want to attack the United States is a vital counterterrorism tool.’

“As a political organizer of his own advancement, Obama is a wonder. But I have yet to identify a single uplifting intention to which he has remained constant if it has presented the slightest risk to his advancement. Summoning all the optimism at my disposal, I suppose we could say he has not yet had occasion to offend two important constituencies and adjust his relatively decent stances on immigration and labor-law reform. Public funding of his campaign? A commitment made becomes a commitment betrayed, just as on warrantless eavesdropping. His campaign treasury is now a vast hogswallow that, if it had been amassed by a Republican, would be the topic of thunderous liberal complaint.

“In substantive terms Obama’s run has been the negation of almost every decent progressive principle, a negation achieved with scarcely a bleat of protest from the progressives seeking to hold him to account. The Michael Moores stay silent. Abroad, Obama stands for imperial renaissance. He has groveled before the Israel lobby and pandered to the sourest reflexes of the cold war era. At home he has crooked the knee to bankers and Wall Street, to the oil companies, the coal companies, the nuclear lobby, the big agricultural combines. He is even more popular with Pentagon contractors than McCain, and has been the most popular of the candidates with K Street lobbyists. He has been fearless in offending progressives, constant in appeasing the powerful.”

The Mighty Minds of the Right

I wrote a post down below (A Tax Primer) that elicited response from a couple of conservatives, and could well have led to one of those tit-for-tat exchanges that covers all the details in great detail while missing the point entirely. But I wasn’t in the mood. I wrote about how people of ordinary means are taxed at a higher level than people of extraordinary means, and how this is going on right under our noses. The gist of the response is that investors are performing a function too important to tax at regular levels, about how wealth creation is too important to mess with, etc. There’s even a reference to Cuba in one of the responses. That’s another form of Godwin’s Law, I think (any discussion of economics will eventually devolve into accusations of communism).

Yet they miss the basic point: The flow of wealth is upward. Investors don’t create wealth – they harvest it, reallocate it, store it for themselves in the form of second homes and fat bank accounts. They perform a useful function, but not so vital that we need to give them special tax treatment. We’ve had periods when taxes on upper income levels were very high, in the fifties, sixties, and seventies, growth rates were high, prosperity was more widely spread, there was less inequality. Life was generally getting better for most people.

The supply-siders have had their way now since 1980, and more so since 2000. Since George W. Bush has become president, five million people have slipped into poverty, eight million have lost their health insurance, median household income has gone down thirteen hundred dollars, three million manufacturing jobs have been lost, three million Americans have lost their pensions, home foreclosures are now the highest on record since the Great Depression, the personal savings rate is below zero (which hasn’t happened since the Great Depression), real earnings of college graduates have dropped five percent, entry level wages have fallen over three percent, wages and salaries are now the lowest percentage of GDP since 1929.

That’s during a period of low taxation of wealth. The underlying principle is that the wealthy are the means by which we accumulate wealth for investment, yet in prior times there was plenty to invest, even with high marginal rates. It sounds very reasonable, but doesn’t play out in the real world.

There’s class warfare going on, but it is not as normally pictured – it’s not the rabble pounding on the doors of the mansions – quite the opposite. The wealthy are slowly bleeding the wealth creators, the workers, investors, small business owners, and hoarding that wealth. Lately, they have taken to encouraging people to use their homes as credit cards, and have so managed to tap the last great source of middle class wealth – home equity. We have seen an enormous transfer of wealth these past thirty years, upward.

I am an ordinary person of modest means. My marginal rate is 46%. It’s no accident. I’m not politically powerful, I don’t have a lobbyist working for me, or a tax foundation to intellectualize the theft. Wealthy people have now rewritten the tax code so that their type of income is taxed at a maximum rate of 15%. That’s not a reflection of economic need, nor does it serve the greater good. It merely reflects who has power, who doesn’t.

Taxation is both a means of raising revenue and a tool by which we increase equality. Progressive taxation is well-established and widely practiced, and we are no less free because of it. We simply have more equality in society, a larger middle class, and more opportunity for people to achieve better lives. And taxation itself, which the right wing presumes to be an economic sin, often enough lead to wiser use of money for public good. There’s little difference between public and private spending other than money used to build a bridge or school offers greater benefit to more people than yachts, mansions and casinos.

We once had marginal tax rates that hit as high as 70% on the equivalent of $3 million in income, inflation adjusted. We also had growth widespread prosperity, and an expanding middle class. Progressive taxation did not hurt us – in terms of all of us, greater good, with was a public benefit.

Conservatives are fundamentally wrong about the way the world works. They are poster children for the power of an ideology crafted by the wealthy in order to justify wealth accumulation as the be-all-end-all, as if it were the only meaningful form of freedom. They have given us what we have now – a broken economy and widespread poverty, wide divisions of wealth ownership and people kept afloat by borrowing because wages failed to keep up with productivity. The fruit of our labor percolated up – nothing has trickled down.

Friday, October 31 Wall Street Journal, page one: Banks Owe Billions to Executives. They’ve had a bailout, but companies like Goldman Sachs are contractually obligated to pay billions to the very executives who drove them into a ditch. In the end, taxpayers will foot the bill.

That’s how our economy works, in microcosm. In this election Barack Obama has made a small gesture to undo some of the injustice – a middle class tax cut. It’s a smart thing – it puts money in the hands of people who need it and actually spend it, and we’ll all do well by it. But listen to the right wing – “Socialism!”, as if sucking off the wealth of the middle classes for accumulation above is somehow more worthy. He wants to take a (very) small step back towards progressivity. I hope he wins, I hope he succeeds. We’ll all be better off.

From WaPo: “An Idiot Wind”

Black/White thinkers cannot brook ambiguity or tolerate divergent views on complex topics. This Washington Post editorial is worth quoting in full.

An ‘Idiot Wind’
John McCain’s latest attempt to link Barack Obama to extremism
Friday, October 31, 2008

WITH THE presidential campaign clock ticking down, Sen. John McCain has suddenly discovered a new boogeyman to link to Sen. Barack Obama: a sometimes controversial but widely respected Middle East scholar named Rashid Khalidi. In the past couple of days, Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, have likened Mr. Khalidi, the director of a Middle East institute at Columbia University, to neo-Nazis; called him “a PLO spokesman”; and suggested that the Los Angeles Times is hiding something sinister by refusing to release a videotape of a 2003 dinner in honor of Mr. Khalidi at which Mr. Obama spoke. Mr. McCain even threw former Weatherman Bill Ayers into the mix, suggesting that the tape might reveal that Mr. Ayers — a terrorist-turned-professor who also has been an Obama acquaintance — was at the dinner.

For the record, Mr. Khalidi is an American born in New York who graduated from Yale a couple of years after George W. Bush. For much of his long academic career, he taught at the University of Chicago, where he and his wife became friends with Barack and Michelle Obama. In the early 1990s, he worked as an adviser to the Palestinian delegation at peace talks in Madrid and Washington sponsored by the first Bush administration. We don’t agree with a lot of what Mr. Khalidi has had to say about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the years, and Mr. Obama has made clear that he doesn’t, either. But to compare the professor to neo-Nazis — or even to Mr. Ayers — is a vile smear.

Perhaps unsurprising for a member of academia, Mr. Khalidi holds complex views. In an article published this year in the Nation magazine, he scathingly denounced Israeli practices in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and U.S. Middle East policy but also condemned Palestinians for failing to embrace a nonviolent strategy. He said that the two-state solution favored by the Bush administration (and Mr. Obama) was “deeply flawed” but conceded there were also “flaws in the alternatives.” Listening to Mr. Khalidi can be challenging — as Mr. Obama put it in the dinner toast recorded on the 2003 tape and reported by the Times in a detailed account of the event last April, he “offers constant reminders to me of my own blind spots and my own biases.”

It’s fair to question why Mr. Obama felt as comfortable as he apparently did during his Chicago days in the company of men whose views diverge sharply from what the presidential candidate espouses. Our sense is that Mr. Obama is a man of considerable intellectual curiosity who can hear out a smart, if militant, advocate for the Palestinians without compromising his own position. To suggest, as Mr. McCain has, that there is something reprehensible about associating with Mr. Khalidi is itself condemnable — especially during a campaign in which Arab ancestry has been the subject of insults. To further argue that the Times, which obtained the tape from a source in exchange for a promise not to publicly release it, is trying to hide something is simply ludicrous, as Mr. McCain surely knows.

Which reminds us: We did ask Mr. Khalidi whether he wanted to respond to the campaign charges against him. He answered, via e-mail, that “I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over.” That’s good advice for anyone still listening to the McCain campaign’s increasingly reckless ad hominem attacks. Sadly, that wind is likely to keep blowing for four more days.

Montana in Play?

I got robocalled last night – some guy talking about Obama’s ‘clinging to guns and religion’ comment. McCain is reduced to cheap shots and smears, and when a state comes into play, floods it with calls. That call told me that Montana is in play. Or maybe it’s just insurance. Who knows with that campaign.

Here’s what Obama said way back when:

“And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

There’s a problem with that statement: It’s true. In politics, that’s a no-no.