Avoiding mistakes made in Iraq

This link is to a long and interesting essay by Gilbert Achcar in Jadaliyya. He attempts to answer the question of just who the Libyan rebels are and who they represent.

The answer is, of course, that it is complicated. There are factions, and NATO is not exactly forthcoming about its intentions. But NATO’s behavior may be telling in that it has refused to arm the rebels and only done light bombing. It’s real mission could well be to do what was done in Egypt, to replace one set of bad actors with another. (Ideally the new regime will appear democratic and still cater to Western interests. That is always the best scenario.)

One factor that raised my eyebrows – the key mistake that Bush made in Iraq was to disband the army. Without it, there was no local mechanism to suppress rebellion, and eventually a huge commitment of US troops had to be used. NATO would want to avoid that mistake, so that it appears that after the rose petals have fallen from the rebellion, Gadaffi’s army will be in place sans Gadaffi. In that manner, the rebellion in Libya will lead to insurgency and counterinsurgency, but with local actors doing the latter, and western troops not used.