The high improbability of certain events

MetaphysicalThe Howland Will Forgery Trial is a very interesting case involving Charles Peirce (pronounced purz). Louis Menand wrote about him and others in a wonderful 2001 book, The Metaphysical Club.

Peirce was involved in the 1868 Howard Will Forgery Trial, and that case is useful here as I try to demonstrate how illogical are the official stories of major crimes of our times. Please refer to this post for a simple exposition of the logic of the coin toss in analyzing observed phenomena.

Anyone interested in Howland (Robinson v. Mandell) can read about it in depth, and I will treat it briefly here. Sylvia Ann Howland died and left a large amount of money to various heirs and legatees. Any residual was to go to her niece, Hetty Robinson, who stepped in with an earlier will. Attached to that will was a letter dated later than the existing will that canceled all the other bequests. It was purportedly signed by Howland, and that was where Peirce entered.

Each of us sign documents regularly, and the quality of our signature varies with our mood, attentiveness, time of day and by pure chance. So it is rare that our signatures will always match in all detail. Peirce noticed with Robinson’s document that part of Howland’s signature, the “downstroke,” when overlaid, matched in all thirty instances with another of her signatures. Using other signatures from other documents, he noted that Howland’s downstroke rarely matched in more than a few instances, and so found this occurrence to be highly unlikely.

He calculated the odds of such a set of identical matches as follows: Signature

That’s one chance in 2,666,000,000,000,000,000,000.

In other words, the Howland signature on the codicil was traced, and the document was a forgery. The conclusion was inescapable. As Charles’ father, Benjamin Peirce, testified on the stand,

The coincidence which has occurred here must have had its origin in an intention to produce it. It is utterly repugnant to sound reason to attribute this coincidence to any cause but design.

The reasoning was relatively new at that time, and the court ruled it inadmissible. Robinson otherwise lost the case.

I will use similar reasoning in the next post as we take a close look at the Naudet film, seen below.

7 thoughts on “The high improbability of certain events

    1. Interesting … however, I reject the notion that anything is new beyond wider citizen knowledge of the real state via the Internet, which is causing an open campaign to clamp down on civil liberties. Such a state has existed throughout my life, though I don’t know about anything before (government agents knew the names and locations of all the Japanese interned after Pearl Harbor, and so had to have been surveilling them.)

      I have read long and hard over the decades about the JFK murder, and come away with the belief that everything needed to murder him or any executive was in place and ready to move prior to that time. Evidence is the number of people in high positions that participated, and the silence and complicity after the fact of the major democratic institutions – the judiciary, law enforcement, the political class and the media. Had JFK minded his Ps and Qs, he’d had lived to ripe old age. Had any executive, Ike, for instance, gotten out of line, he’d have been removed from office.

      So then the only question about JFK was why it was done in public, and why not simply publicize his sex life to get him out of office. Jim Marrs offered the best answer – his murder was meant as a deterrent, like capital punishment, to keep future executives in line. And indeed, we’ve had a string of presidents, Nixon and Reagan excepted, who performed down to the lowest possible standard. (Reagan was, in my view, merely a useful idiot. Nixon had to be removed via Watergate, and I don’t know what his crime was.)


      1. Nixon’s crime(s)?

        National Environmental Policy Act (1970), and creation of CEQ
        Creation of the EPA: Reorganization Plan No. 3 (35 F.R. 15623, 84 Stat. 2086) was an executive order submitted to the United States Congress on July 9, 1970
        Clean Air Act (1970)
        Reorganization of NOAA in the Commerce Dept. (1970)
        Clean Water Act (1972)
        Coastal Zone Management Act (1972)
        Marine Mammal Protection Act (1972)
        Endangered Species Act (1973)
        Safe Drinking Water Act (1974) Introduced under Nixon, signed by Ford.

        Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (precursor to NFMA). Introduced under Nixon, signed by Ford.

        Nixon was lucky the oligarchs and neocons let him off with just some petty crimes. If they only knew what they know now, he would have been JFK’d.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. I was just listening today to Mae Brussell talking about a failed Nixon assassination attempt – I was listening to a 1971 or 72 broadcast. The guy linked below, Roger Stone, did a very interesting interview, funny even. (In the second hour he talks about having a tattoo of Nixon between his shoulder blades, and is kind of being serious about it and finally says “and anyway, I was drunk out of my mind when I did it.”


    1. I normally don’t truck with Veterans Today, as Fetzer is annoying and suspicious, but I did listen to an interview with Roth last week and found her credible to a degree. I always hold back on such new revelations however, as it is a puzzle palace.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s