The last post, called Some Pedagogy on Weather and Climate, showed graphs that are direct temperature measurements for the last 100 years from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency. I mentioned in the comments that those temperatures may not be reliable, as Anthony Watts has studied the data gathering system, the actual instruments that report temperatures, and found that perhaps 95% of them are located on heat islands, places like airport tarmacs and parking lots. As a result, temperatures reported may be too high, and even the slight amount of warming reported in the Tisdale book, Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate may not be reliable.
I based my premise on observations that seemed to me pertinent, that our school kids do not study graphs, certainly not statistics. Consequently, when they look at complicated presentations like the Tisdale graphs, and especially the Palmer Drought Severity Index, their eyes glaze over. So I used the word “Pedagogy,” which merely means the art of teaching. What I hoped to avoid was to be “pedantic,” someone annoying. I was hoping to cross a line delicately into spreading understanding of Tisdale’s important work, which I regard sea-changing. He completely destroys the myth that our planet is warming at an alarming rate, at least for our lower forty-eight.
Thermometers have only been around a little over 300 years, given to us by Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit. The graph at the top of the opening page is taken from GISP2, the second Greenland Ice Core Project. GISP2 is a large undertaking begun in 1988, the idea to drill deep into the Greenland ice and extract an ice core. In 1993 they completed drilling, labeling and storage of the ice core 3,053.44 meters deep. That’s about 10,000 feet. The ice core is a trip through geographic time, as shown above, about 10,000 years, or the greater part of our current Holocene Interglacial Period. The remarkable thing about that project is that they can extract data from the core based on trapped bubbles of air, and using an Oxygen isotope, among others, they can approximate temperature. They use several, but the ones I noted in my reading are δD and δ18O, or Deuterium and Oxygen18. These same molecules can be found today at middle and high latitudes. The assumption is that the presence of those isotopes today is in a similar temperature environment as when the gas bubble were trapped. Ergo, temperature today at those latitudes is probably the temperature when the original ice compacted.
(Also note, the red line graph under the top graph is atmospheric CO2, measurements taken from the EPICA Dome C Antarctic ice cores, which I will discuss briefly at the end. If you can spot a correlation between CO2 and temperatures, run, do not walk, to Al Gore’s lush beach house in California. He needs to know that his property, along with Obama’s, is not under threat of rising sea water. As if.)
That is pretty ingenious! Because thermometers are not available going back that far, the ice core becomes a “proxy,” widely used (and misused) in climate science.
Another famous proxy is Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick, shown below alongside a section of the GISP2 covering the same time frame.
The Hockey Stick was invented, as I view it, as a propaganda tool. It was a visual representation of a contrived emergency used by Al Gore and others. The promoters of this hokum must know on some level that the stick was junk science. Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick as long ago as 2005 shredded the stick, finding in their paper on the subject, Hockey Sticks, Principle Components, and Spurious Significance, that the manner in which Mann constructed his stick would fit any other set of data and produce the same result. But the way we deal with this kind of stuff these days, Mann drawing outrageous conclusions, suing people right and left just to bind their arms in litigation, speaks of tyranny. Mann knows nothing about climate, and must surely be a man of low concepts, merely wanting to get by in life. When people with money and power offer him a way to fame, he takes it, no questions asked. This is a disreputable man.
But Mann had an objective, one that could only be achieved by a magic trick. In the little graph with the vertical green lines above next to Mann’s Hockey Stick, I have carved out the same period of time from GISP2 as Mann shows us in his stick, 1000 years. That period includes what we call the Medieval Warm Period. That period lasted from approximately 800-1300 AD. As GISP2 shows, it was much warmer then than now. This is the time period in which Vikings were farming Greenland, and when grapes for wine were grown in Northern England. If Mann and Gore and all claim that we are in a period of unprecedented heat caused by use of fossil fuels, then they would have to explain why it was hotter a thousand years ago, a time with no fossil fuels, than now. His solution appears to have been to use sloppy science to make the Medieval Warm Period go away.
There is more, much more to learn from ice core technology. I’ve got a kettle of ideas boiling over. In Antarctica they have cores that go back two million years, though what I read on the subject indicates that 800,000 years is the limit. But Princeton scientists claim to have broken that barrier. Just reading their stuff, they seem hell-bent (and unsuccessful) of tying CO2 into ice core science. We can never be sure these days, so many liars afoot, so wait and see.,
This Antarctica data (and it helps to know how to interpret graphs) is taken from the EPICA Dome C ice core in Antarctica. It covers 800,000 (!) years. Peaks are Interglacial periods such as the one we are currently in, and troughs are the return of ice. On the very far right, where we see a sharp uptick in temperatures, is where we are now, the Holocene. Within the Holocene are warm periods called Minoan, Roman, Medieval and Modern, our current time period. There is also a Little Ice Age. There is a lot to squeeze into that graph, so vast is its coverage. From what we see here it can be deduced that for our planet, warmth is the exception, cold the rule. Contrary to what we are told by alarmists, it is better to be warm than cold. I know that works for me.
Enough for a day. By the way, here is what climate alarmists and extremists think about GISP2:
In the modern era, disagreement is not allowed in science. They achieve consensus by forcing skeptics to shut up, or else. No funding, no job, drive that Uber. It is fascism.