Imagine the following scenario:
Obama wins all the states where he currently holds sizable leads – 228 electoral votes. In addition, he wins New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21), Minnesota (10), and Nevada (5). That would give him 269 electoral votes. Needed to win: 270.
McCain wins all the states where he currently holds sizable leads – 132 electoral votes. In addition, given our electronic voting machines’ propensity to lean Republican, he wins all of the following contested states: Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Florida (27), Indiana (11), North Dakota (3), Virginia (15). That gives him 259. Imagine that he also manages to pluck Colorado, where there has been a serious Republican-led voter purge over the last two years, picking up an additional 9. That gives him 266.
He would need three electoral votes to tie Obama- Montana. The latest poll I saw has it virtually a dead heat, with Ron Paul and Bob Barr being the wild cards. It is possible that Montana goes for Obama, and it’s over. But in this scenario if McCain wins Montana, it’s a dead heat, and goes to the House of Representatives, where, alas, Obama would probably win. (You never know, what with Blue Dogs and all.)
That’s one possibility. Governor Schweitzer, no slouch at politics, thinks that if Paul/Barr take 6% of the Montana vote, Obama could squeak it out. We might give him his victory.
Imagine this scenario: We have a popular vote landslide for Obama (where he leads, his leads are substantial – California 58-34, New York 62-32), and a McCain electoral vote victory. Would the American people be satisfied with that? Would McCain be a lame duck from day one? Would Sarah get a new wardrobe?
I’ve pretty much resigned myself to a McCain victory – we are at the mercy of these machines. Even where there are paper ballots and electronic scanning, there have been irregularities with the scanning results, and little diligence in recounting (See: Clinton victory, New Hampshire primary). So I take heart knowing that even if McCain steals this election, he won’t be very effective at advancing the Bush agenda.
Prediction: McCain 290, Obama 248 (Pennsylvania mysteriously flips to McCain around 1AM.
Piece of Mindful 
How about this scenario: Obama wins a squeaker election, and McCain announces that he will not challenge the result “for the sake of national unity”. Post election investigation reveals massive voter fraud on the part of ACORN et al, funded by illegal campaign contributions, to the extent that it changed the election. When asked about this, Dem chairman Dean had this response.
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The Republicans have advanced this voter fraud scenario as cover fire for their efforts to purge voter rolls nationwide. It’s not hard to figure out – low turnout favors R’s, high turnout D’s. Republicans do everything they can to stop people from voting.
Voter fraud is not a problem. End of story.
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>>>>low turnout favors R’s, high turnout D’s.
Sort of true, but I think it will change when word gets out that R’s are in people’s best long term interest: R areas have less crime and lower costs of living.
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