What It’s Like

An explosion rocked downtown Bozeman yesterday, killing one woman, creating a nightmare scene on Main Street. People are in shock.

I can’t help but be reminded that my country routinely drops bombs of much larger magnitude on cities in other countries. Most people here are impressed when we do that. The Pentagon even allows us to watch films of bombs blasting – from a distance, and dehumanized. Our bombs make a big, titillating boom.

bozemanbomb

This is what it’s like on the other end.

Gaza After Israel Attacked

The “H.I. Bunker Buster” (Humanely Intended) – a U.S. Bomb Dropped on Iraq (military target, of course).

Intractable Problems

As anyone who tours the Montana blogs knows, I spend most of my wasteable time at right wing places, engaging in debate with the likes of “Max Bucks”, Craig Moore, Dad, “Jerry Chung”, aka “Rook”, “Knight”, and “Checker”. There’s also Rob Natelson and Steve somebody-or-other (“Rabid Sanity”), Carole (Missoulapolis), Shackleford (MtPundit), Gregg Smith, and the late-great Craig Sprout of mt.politics.net. And Budge. Big Swede and rightsaidfred are always interesting. And there are others I am missing but do not intend to slight. It seems there are far more conservative blogs these days than liberal, and far more conservatives posting than liberals.

Usually the exchanges are testy, and I get called names, and occasionally resort to saying things I wish I hadn’t. Most times I maintain my cool, but from the other side, it appears as though I am thoughtless and dogmatic. In the end, I regret those exchanges that bring out my worst and their worst. (I do, however, love to taunt Budge. He gets very insulting. Yesterday I stopped at “incoherent drool”. I’d bet he said something interesting after that, but I have no idea what. He lost me.)

They will not change. A few of them are thoughtful – they know who they are. But for the most part, it does no good to be kind to them. And that is a shame, because the thoughtful conservatives have a lot to offer us, and we need to listen to them. I’ve been around liberals enough to know that they can be light and feathery, and not hard-nosed enough to deal with the world as it really exists. I’m not so dogmatic as I appear, but I do react to dogma with counter-dogma, often knowing I am merely being a contrarian. To yield an inch is to lose a yard.

Anyway, it occurred to me this morning that it would not hurt to pick on an idea taken from a right-wing perspective, and give it due respect. The one that instantly comes to mind is the notion that to give people unearned benefits destroys their individual initiative, and makes them wards of the state.

It’s true. We’ve all seen it. In its worst form, it is the single mother, unwedded or abandoned and irresponsible, kept away from her kids by the requirement that she work a job that doesn’t cover the cost of childcare, which thereby becomes a public expense. She has us over a barrel – her uterus is a claim on the public treasury. The kids are victims who will soon make their own claims on us. The whole situation is tragic.

Then there is the Earned Income Tax Credit, which was revamped during the 1990’s into a pure welfare program. The EITC started out as a means of refunding payroll tax to low income workers, but has become something else. It is heavily weighted towards people with kids. Again, at its root, is irresponsible reproduction – people who cannot afford kids having kids. It’s troubling.

I see the point of the other side of that debate. I don’t know what to do about it – raise more responsible adults? Birth control? Mandatory sterilization? We tread a line between individual freedom and tyranny. Liberals tend to glamorize these people as victims, when we have all met them. That slice of humanity that I have dealt with is often drugged or liquored up, useless to themselves and to us. The conservatives are right about them, and the liberals too soft to give them the tough love they need.

That is just one of many points on which conservatives are right, and yet … they don’t have a solution for us. Neither does our side. It is seemingly intractable, though deep down many conservatives simply want them to perish. I have tended lately to fall back on something offered years ago by William F. Buckley – that it is not a bad thing to feed these people, but don’t feed them too well. Instead of food stamps used to buy starchy and sugary processed foods that make us all fat, give them access to basic foodstuffs. Let them eat, but not enjoy it too much. To the degree possible, resist giving them cash. They usually don’t spend it well. Liquor stores often benefit.

And about having all them kids? Birth control on every corner. Free condoms, pills, shots in the arm – whatever it takes. We can’t stop them from copulating, but we can make it less productive.

Anyway, I depart the conservative philosophy regarding indigents when it comes to two things that can help lift them out of both moral and physical poverty – education and health care.

Some other time.

Explosive Story

I got a phone call from my brother in Livingston this morning. He told me that a friend of his told him that there had been an explosion in downtown Bozeman at a restaurant called Boodles.

I went to the radio and scanned the dial. Nothing. (I don’t think we have any locally owned stations.) I went to the web page for the Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Nothing. (It’s pay-based.) I turned on the TV for local channels – they were running The View, The Price is Right, and The Morning Show with Mike and Juliet.

Finally, I went to the Billings Gazette. I found the story there.

Blast levels Main Street businesses in Bozeman

By The Gazette Staff

An explosion on Main Street in Bozeman shook downtown and leveled at least one building at 8:30 a.m. today.

Broken glass littered the pavement for several blocks. The blast was near the Boodles Restaurant and the Rocking R Bar. Fire crews and [sic] are on the scene

Check the Gazette’s Web site for updates.

We still have news. It’s old fashioned, I know. A “newspaper.”

Update: A local Clear Channel radio station had some coverage, but has now gone back to Rush Limbaugh. The Chronicle has coverage at their website now. A local TV station did a helicopter flyover. It’s pretty devastating. The explosion was heard six miles away, and blew out windows of all businesses around. The governor has offered the National Guard to prevent looting. The city has distributed a flyer asking local residents to provide housing and support for people displaced by the blast. Local government is stressed to the max, but they are doing a great job. People attempting to get into the area are turned away, and threatened with arrest if the persist. Big news for a small town.

Update II: People below tell me I’m all wet about news coverage, that it was there and quite good from the time it happened on. My bad. That’s why I am an accountant, a lion tamer, and not a journalist.

Saving the Marvelous Engine

I am inspired by Big Swede, a frequent commenter here and elsewhere who has his own brand – the somewhat-non-sequitur. The man has his own charm, and I’ve come to appreciate it. He did, in his own fashion, make a sort-of-dead-on comment over at Missoulapolis – here’s the original quotation he is responding to – Carole links to Haaretz:

First of all, even with their very long-term view, CalPERS and funds like it couldn’t achieve returns greater than 9% a year, as they did over the last 25 years. Long-term government bonds trading at a yield of 3% create too much of a burden on returns, which translate into excessively high expectations of the portfolio’s stocks component…

Secondly, dropping yields on government bonds over time requires savers and public employers to increase their provision into savings, at the expense of consumption. That is the price of very low interest rates. In some cases, it can wind up depressing private and public consumption instead of stimulating them. We seem to have reached that point.

To which Swede responds:

Consider this vicious cycle.

People out of work, less money to spend.
Leads to
Sales and income tax declines.
Leads to
State govt. running deficits.
Leads to
State govt. raising taxes.
Leads to
Business leaving state or country.
Leads to
People out of work, less money to spend……..and on and on and on……

It does indeed seem like a downward spiral. The theory behind the stimulus package is that government has to step in and halt the spiral by injecting fresh cash into the system, creating demand. The stimulus package, however, was besotted with tax cuts directed at the upper middle class, so its impact will be muted somewhat. There will probably be another stimulus package in our future. In the meantime, Republicans are like a broken pull-string doll … tax cuts … tax cuts … tax cuts …

The word that comes to mind is “chaos”, at least apparent chaos as we move back towards order. But how much pain must we endure? I don’t know if the stimulus package will work. I sort of doubt it. I look at Obama’s $1.75 trillion deficit, and shudder. China is our good buddy, but are they that good? If not, do we merely create the money? If we do that, do we spiral into inflation? Hyperinflation?

History repeats, somewhat. Asset inflation and easy money and low taxes and paper chases preceded the Great Depression. We supposedly know more now, and have a Federal Reserve wise to its own mishandling of the banking system back then. Nobody wants chaos or depression or inflation, except perhaps some mentally challenged Republicans who want Obama to fail.

But I wonder if it is all beyond our reach, if we have to crash, bottom out, and again come to know what our forebears learned from the first Depression: We need financial regulation and high marginal tax rates to keep this marvelous engine from overheating.

2:00 AM in the Bar: The Sound of Wingbeats

In their seminal paper “Flying in Tune: Sexual recognition in mosquitoes”, Gabrielle Gibson and and Ian Russel from the University of Greenwich discovered an inspiring phenomenon: male mosquitoes change their buzzing frequency to match that of a female mosquito. This synchronization brings their wing beats to within a millisecond or less of one another. The authors suggest that this phenomenon facilitates the mosquitoes’ ability to copulate mid-flight.

Courtesy of Truce via Metafilter

Bush the Moderate

Paul Craig Roberts, once of supply-side fame, as written a disturbing piece, Obama’s Budget, on line at Counterpunch. Every liberal still starry-eyed over the election needs to read it – surprise surprise! The new administration is carrying forth with the Bush policies on spying and detention. Little noted, Obama’s “withdrawal” plan for Iraq leaves 50,000 troops there permanently. The joke’s on us! That was McCain’s plan! That was Bush’s plan! That’s a knee-slapper!

Here’s an excerpt:

Obama is requesting $130 billion for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan during 2010 plus a $75 billion supplemental request for the wars during 2009. This $205 billion is on top of $534 billion for the Pentagon in 2010, for total military spending of $739 billion.

The Chinese government’s budget shows China’s military spending at $59 billion in 2008. (The Pentagon claims Chinese military spending is between $97 billion and $139 billion.) Russia’s military spending in 2009 is projected to be about $50 billion.

That is, we are outspending China and Russia combined by possibly as much as seven-to-one. Roberts further speculates that since Obama has adopted the Cheney/Bolton hard line against Iran, that perhaps he intends to open up a third front in our war on peace. Or, call it a fourth front, with Pakistan being the third.

In the Reaganist view of the country, government is the enemy of prosperity and needs to be reined in. Since government programs are popular and the public supports funding, these programs have to be undermined. One way to do that is to create so much debt that sustaining them becomes an impossibility.

Reagan used military spending to do this, as did Bush. The military budget is beyond criticism – no one dare cut it. Nor do they talk about deficits in terms of what the military is doing to us. It’s always Social Security (self-funded) and Medicare, and for the less-educated, “welfare”. Out-of-whack military budgets are seen as essential to security. Propaganda rules.

“Starving the beast” has always been a threat, but it has never materialized. Social programs have increased funding since 1980, and Bush even added a pharmaceutical industry subsidy (that somewhat benefits seniors) to Medicare.

But past budget deficits were mild compared to the maniac we now have in the White House. It could be that “The One” will be the one who undid progressive movement. Isn’t it ironic?

Another Government Lie Exposed

Vodpod videos no longer available.

In the above scene, Dr. Emmett Brown is transporting his dog, Einstein, one minute into the future. Einstein arrives shortly after this cut ends.

Not so fast! Schechner at the blog Overthinking It has a few questions. He is troubled by the fact that Einstein arrives in exactly the same place as he departed from. Making a few rudimentary calculations, he figures that the earth would have moved 1,123.17 miles in space – this taking into account only the rotation of the earth on its axis and its orbit around the sun, with no mention of the distance traveled by the solar system itself, or the galaxy.

He arrives back at the parking lot exactly one minute in the future – well, not exactly. Schechner calculates that the departure and arrival watches might be off just a tad, say ~1 millisecond. For a dog to travel 1,122.17 miles in one millisecond, he would have to travel six times the speed of light in a vacuum – backward. Since we all know that is impossible (at the very least, he’d be traveling backward in time – not forward), there is only one conclusion to be drawn:

The movie is a hoax!

And the two sequels as well. Another government lie.

The Nutty Professor

I’m sitting here in the Portland airport with time to kill, wondering if I have been too hard on the Perfesser – not that he cares, but civility matters. I haven’t been civil with him, but it seems that doing so merely feeds the beast. The man has a massive ego, or massive insecurity. He expects to be treated with deference, his opinions accepted as having gravity beyond disputation. If one does not knock him off the podium, he just goes on and on and on … right about everything, dismissive of anyone else’s outlook. He will lecture you if you let him, but that’s about it. He’s quite a piece of work.

So I take us back to the early 1990’s. Montana’s tax system was somewhat in disrepair, in that we had a top marginal tax rate of 11%, and according to accepted wisdom, that was driving people away. In addition, as a tax preparer, I saw many people who were exempt from even filing a federal return who were required to file a Montana return and pay some tax. We need to get rid of the top bracket – it was an illusion anyway – deductibility of federal taxes knocked that bracket down to seven percent. We needed chop off the bottom as well, to free people in the low brackets from filing at all.

The legislature was Democratic at that time, and they put together a package that satisfied both objectives – knocking down the top rate, clearing out the bottom. It would have, overall, reduced taxes for middle and lower middle class and eliminated them for the working poor, with slight increases in the upper tiers – overall, it was not revenue neutral – it was a tax decrease.

Along comes the Perfesser – screaming to all who would listen – “They’re raising your taxes!!! They’re raising your taxes!!!” He’s a one-noter in that regard – in his world, taxes are inefficient, the private sector totally efficient, so that any revenue that is collected by taxation is automatically poorly spent or invested. He’s wrong about that, of course, but try telling him.

Anyway, he launched a petition campaign to put the tax reform on the ballot, and demogogued it. He told people whose taxes were actually going to be decreased that they were going up – since he is never ill-informed, I can only conclude that he consciously lied about that. But it worked – the bill was rejected by the voters, and we went back to our old system.

Along comes Judy Martz, the ditzy blond, and a Republican legislature, and they have their own brand of tax “reform” – our current system, which is essentially a flat tax at 6.9%, with limited deductibility of federal taxes, aka double taxation of the same income. That hits high-income taxpayers very hard, and they know it. And we have people on the bottom who don’t have to file federal returns having to file Montana returns, and pay taxes.

Montana’s taxpayers were harmed by this man – he alone did this damage. He is responsible for lower income people having to pay taxes and file returns, he is responsible for double taxation of income for people who pay more than $5,000 in federal tax ($10,000 MFJ). If he hadn’t demogogued a good bill, we would not have gotten a bad one instead.

Natelson has a dedicated following, much the same as Ayn Rand does – people attracted to a simple world and troubled by nuance and unpredictable outcomes. His philosophy is easy to comprehend – taxes bad, regulation bad, government bad, private sector good. There is excellence in the private sector, mediocrity in government. If we had a minimum of government, it would be a better world. No matter that the system we have now came about because the private sector constantly falls on its face, with bubbles and depressions and recessions and extremes of wealth and poverty and uninsured people needing medical care, seniors starving for lack of pensions – no matter all of that. It’s only evidence, it’s only history. And it doesn’t matter.

After all, this is all about the perfesser. And he’s always right. Don’t believe me? Just ask him.