Of climate models and other toys

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently announced that 2024 was the warmest year on record, the key being “on record.” When IPCC speaks it is treated in the media as an ex cathedra source (a Catholic expression meaning “from the chair”, or infallible). There are several reasons for this:

  • IPCC was set up on the founding principle that greenhouse gases were heating up our climate, a finalistic principle that has led to circular thinking from the beginning.
  • IPCC relies on 30 or so climate models coming from around the world, each starting with the assumption that the Earth’s climate is in equilibrium, and that only human activity will change that. All of these climate models drift off into catastrophic warming except one, the Russians, who have always produced better scientists than here in the West. Save that, none of the climate models are in sync with real climate data, and yet are followed with rigor by governments all over the planet. Hence, windmills littering the landscapes along with solar panels, and countries like Germany and Great Britain drifting into perilous shortages, blackouts, and rationing. One can infer from this, as during Covid, that all the governments on the planet (save perhaps Tanzania) march lockstep to an undisclosed higher power. We were once told that we should fear a “one world government”, but I am here to tell you that while we were barring our doors against it, it came in through the bathroom window.
  • All news agencies everywhere treat the IPCC as the man behind the green curtain, and none will dare pull back that curtain to reveal the Oscar Zoroaster Phadrig Isaac Norman Henkle Emmannuel Ambroise Diggs – like character who is governing our perceptions. This gives IPCC an entrenched aura of (unearned) authority, as in essence it is a propaganda body, and follows the principles of propaganda far more faithfully than those of science.

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A bad reaction to a minor insult

I put up a comment on Watts Up With That to the effect that Michael Mann’s PhD was premature, and also citing a paper by Nikolov and Zeller stating that there was no heat transfer within our atmosphere even as more CO2 accumulates, as the process is  “adiabatic” which means that the process in our atmosphere and in all of our rocky planets occurring without loss or gain of heat. Global temperatures respond to many forces including insolation and increases and decreases in the planet albedo. I also concluded with the statement that many people, including scientists, “lead with their chin” when they start out their debate by conceding that there is “some” warming caused by CO2 and the GHG effect, that is, green house gases.

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My Notable Death Dossier #1

As someone over 60, I find myself suddenly interested in browsing obituaries. However, with the decline of newspapers, my only source is the “Notable Deaths” page on Wikipedia. Inevitably, my curiosity leads me to uncover some surprising and unusual details, so I thought I’d share my recent discoveries here.

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A Feigenbaum tree of chaotic behavior?

The above chart is a summary of various hurricane models predicting the future course of Hurricane Rafeal. I got it from an article at Watts Up With That by Kip Hansen, whose cv appears to be a Chaologist, or someone who studies chaos theory. The black spot above Cuba is the 24-hour point for the storm, and the diverging lines thereafter are predictions of its future course by the models.

As you can see, nobody knows. Why it seems almost … chaotic.

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IPCC: Just Bad at Science … or Engaged in Science Fraud?

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and climate alarmists in general don’t think the sun is terribly important in the matter of the climate of our planet. As absurd as that sounds, there is a reason: The UN’s political Agenda (established by Resolution A/RES/43/53 of the UN General Assembly in 1988) is to promote Anthropogenic Climate Change. That is the cart that precedes AGW and its so-called science horse. If the sun was shown to be a major player in global climate, it would short circuit the AGW movement. But that creates a problem, as the sun is indeed the major player behind our planet’s climate.

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National Interagency Fire Center joins the long con

The Heartland Institute is a group of climate change skeptics comprised of scientists and others, many like me simply impressed with their work and willing to contribute. (I tongue-in-cheek give them $33 a month). In 2022 they put out a booklet called Climate at a Glance for Teachers and Students that offers up a brief summary of thirty hot topics, so to speak. Each item is referenced so that debate among the public and climate “scientists” can go on intelligently.

The above graph is a 93-year record of forest fires in the lower 48. I recognize that it is somewhat blurry, as I had to scan it out of the book. It is no longer available on public agency websites. The X-axis is years, 1920-2020, and the Y-axis the number of acres burned in the lower 48, 10 million to 60 million. As we can see, the most acreage burned by forest fires was the 1930s and 40s, with 1931 seeing 52 million acres burned. I hesitate to say we “lost” acreage, as it has almost all grown back, and also know that wildfires are a natural component of forest health.

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Climate sensitivity: Warmists miss by a factor of 682?

I have maintained for some time now that the effects of CO2 on the planet’s temperature are insignificant, no more than a pimple on an elephant’s butt. CO2 was chosen as a stalking horse to enable warmists to surreptitiously level an attack on humanity via elimination of fossil fuels, our lifeblood. It’s people that they want gone. 

Much of the debate surrounding CO2 is about what is referred to as “climate sensitivity”, or the amount of warming that would occur with a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Typically measurements of atmospheric CO2 start before the industrial revolution, in the late 1700s, at 280ppm (parts per million), so that a doubling would be 560ppm, which by my calculations will happen in 35-40 years at current rates. (We are currently at about 422 ppm, or stated otherwise, the percentage of the atmosphere that is CO2 is .0422, or .000422 if stated as a decimal. It is but a trace molecule, blown up by warmists to T-Rex proportion. 

Before we dissect the above graph, I want to cite AI, which these days bleeds over anything I try to use a search engine for … this is AI describing IPCC Climate Models. 

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Hottest day ever?

AP News recently ran a headline claiming, actually shouting, that Monday, July 22, 2024 was the hottest day ever in Earth’s history. My questions are many, but most importantly, do they really expect to be taken seriously when making such claims? This is followed by “Do they believe their own lies?” It appears to me that these screaming headlines are designed to reach gullible people who don’t read beyond headlines and who can’t think properly anyway. That must be the target market – most Americans.

Let’s have a look of some of the many problems with this headline:

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Science class is cancelled today

 

The above three men are, left to right, Michael Mann, Keith Briffa (1952-2017), and Phil Jones. All three worked in or for the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at East Anglia University in Norwich, England when in 2009 there was a major leak of internal emails, a scandal now referred to as “Climategate”. Over the years, by means of whitewash and lack of media coverage, the subject of Climategate has been minimized if not forgotten, and the people at its center exonerated.

I do not exonerate them.

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