84 years of failed predictions

Epoch Times … not sure what to make of it. It seems at times Trumpy, and at times Musky. It seems to operate on very little advertising, meaning there are deep pockets keeping it afloat. But I subscribed, and like the idea of getting a paper newspaper. (I do not know who John Tang is, or Falun Gong practitioners, but apparently there is an important Chinese connection.)

The current issue highlights climate predictions that have not come true, 1939 to 2023, with a hat tip to a 1923 New York Times article that Arctic ice was melting at a rapid and alarming rate. You can review them here. I will highlight a few of the Epoch fails, you might call them. There are 41 of them.

  • 1939: All the glaciers in Eastern Greenland are rapidly melting. That is still going on, of course, and is still alarming!
  • 1947: Arctic ice is melting at such an alarming rate that sea level rise poses a real and present danger. The problem with prediction, which Climatistas no longer preach about, is that Arctic ice rests on ocean water. Just like ice cubes melting in a glass, melting of Arctic ice, if it ever happens, will have no effect on sea level.
  • 1967: Paul Erhlich predicts world-wide famine by 1975. Why has this man continued working all these decades, never having made an accurate prediction? In 1970 he will predict water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980 in the US.
  • 1974: Time magazine asks the question, “Another Ice Age”? “Telltale signs are everywhere.” Time frames the headline as a question, so it therefore cannot be wrong. Use of the word “telltale” weakens their case, but still, it cannot be wrong. That’s called “weasel wording.”
  • 1988: Maldives are threatened with complete inundation by sea water. That’s still going on, by the way, even as an Emirati development company sunk (so to speak) $148 million to build 120 luxurious beach and over-water condos. I hope they float.
  • 2000: One of my favorites, David Viner of East Anglia University predicts the end of snowfall. An extremely stupid prediction for which his career has not suffered in the least. Being a Climatista means never having to admit error.
  • 2006: Al Gore gives the planet 10 years to live.
  • 2007: Rajendra Pachauri, head of UN Climate Panel, says Gore is wrong, that 2012 is the actual drop dead date. He shortened our lives by four years.
  • 2009: Al Gore, again, says Arctic ice will be gone by 2014-2016.
  • 2014: “End of snow?” asks New York Times op-ed, again posing it as a question to avoid being wrong. It was concerned about snow pack in the Western US, which has seen no significant decline to this day.
  • 2018: Arctic ice will disappear by 2022, says James Anderson, Harvard University professor of atmospheric chemistry.
  • 2021: The end of snow in California, says the LA Times. A few months later the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Laboratory announced the snowiest December on record.
  • 2023: Arctic ice, says Washington Post … and blah blah blah.

Which all reminds me of a line by Sam Goldwyn, “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Early predictions of melting ice and disappearing glaciers can be forgiven, as there is mild warming going on, and glaciers in the northern hemisphere are receding. Nothing to get alarmed about, as nothing ever stays the same. And, not so down south. News media loves to run footage of ice calving in Antarctica, which can be spectacular if one has no sense of the size of the place or the amount of annual snowfall it receives. Plus, there are reports of volcanic activity under that ice.

More recent predictions seem to be deliberate, people making crazy claims knowing they will not be called out when wrong. Thus have we Al Gore and David Viner. That appears to be more deliberate propaganda, with CO2 being used as a stalking horse for a larger and hidden agenda.

No mind, not going to write about that stuff again. Being a Climate Alarmist means never having to say you’re sorry. Or wrong. Or stupid.

4 thoughts on “84 years of failed predictions

  1. They’re not predictions of anything. They are tools to shape public perception to justify government policy. You might as well make fun of the Spanish Inquisition.


  2. I can’t figure out that Falun Gong backstory either (although I haven’t dug very deeply.) Apparently it was a growing cult in China, with a charismatic leader claimed to have done or experienced miracles or something.. until China cracked down on them as political dissidents. Intel operation of some sort? Backed by who? Then I guess the leadership set up shop in the West – or retreated back to the West. And funds agitprop against China (true or not idk) and also plays to the Trumpy/Musky side of the dialectic. At least that’s my vague understanding.


  3. I see Epoch Times as controlled opposition (targeting mainly ‘Republicans’), like Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, Elon Musk etc.
    It does reveal ‘some’ truths, but it usually maintains the veracity of ‘things that did not happen’, e.g. COVID, the Ukraine war, East-West dichotomy


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