What follows is going to be old news for many readers, so bear with me. The issue of climate change is something that takes time to sink in for me, and I am a late arrival, so please, if you are up to speed already, humor me.
I finally took time these past few days to read some of the so-called Climategate emails, wherein over a thousand internal messages from The Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia in Norwich England were made public. I thought it was going to be a tortuous task for a non-scientist, but it is not. The emails that I read at this site are not loaded with jargon and math. They concern themselves with politics, playing defense against pain-in-the-ass skeptics, and making sure that the public only sees an alarmist point of view about climate change on news and television. In the emails scientists who are skeptical on this subject are ridiculed, stonewalled and suppressed.
Climategate is well covered elsewhere, as is the whitewashing that went on in the aftermath. Googling “Climategate” yields many sites that dismiss and “debunk” the matter, including the prestigious Union of Concerned Scientists. There was a circling of the wagons after the email “hack,” which was probably just a leak from someone inside CRU in possession of a conscience. I hope that when we get to the end of this post, you will understand that not only was it done to expose a serious breach of scientific ethics, and also massive science fraud.
Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth– was based on lies. He must have known. It suggests to me that his book, Earth in the Balance, appearing as it did in the 1992 election year, was probably ghost-written, as are so many books by politicians. At Harvard he was not a good student of either math or science. Wikipedia covers for his sorry ass on this issue, saying that he was “… an avid reader who fell in love with scientific and mathematical theories…”. Unpack that sentence – what does it even mean?
Let’s begin with the so-called hockey stick, developed by climatologist Michael Mann in concert with the CRU.
Mann, who now claims that the Hockey Stick should not have become so prominent in the climate change debate, appears to have known in advance what his findings would be, what the CRU would conclude, and what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be publishing. That is all I can make of it. Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) appears to be a project designed to sell costly and unnecessary legislation, and to cut back on CO2 even as it is an essential and beneficial molecule that grows our crops, run our machines, and helps us advance in comfort and wealth.
He had to know this in advance, otherwise he would not have committed the fraud that is contained in this graph. In order to show the flat and gradually cooling line seen here, he had to eliminate two periods in our planet’s recent history, the Medieval Warming Period MWP), and the more recent Little Ice Age (LIA), which ended around 1870. But it is worse than that … far worse.
Above is a temperature graph done by Hubert Lamb, the founder of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (in 1972). He died in 1997 – It is easy to see that it contradicts Mann’s hockey stick graph in total. In fact, in the released emails, Mann suggests that the Medieval Warm Period had to go away, as well as the Little Ice Age. Since we know that Vikings were farming in Greenland during the MWP, and that they had to leave due to the LIA, it is an inconvenient fact. Mann had to fudge the numbers to make them disappear. This is from one of Mann’s emails:
I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2000 years, rather than the usual 1000 years … that it would be nice to try to “contain” the putative “Medieval Warm Period”, even if we don’t yet have data available that far back.
Note that Mann wants to “contain” the MWP even as he has not seen the data. In accounting, we call that cooking the books.
(I put the red arrow in Lamb’s graph to point to the turn to the twentieth century and all of the warming that was already going on at that time, even as we were barely adding CO2 to the atmosphere. We are merely coming out of the LIA. The link between CO2 and warming is tenuous at best, and the fact that we are gradually warming is hardly a problem, far more a benefit. The LIA was not a good time to be alive – Iceland lost half of its population during that time. It was better to be around during the MWP, a time when the Vikings were farming in Greenland.)
It gets worse.I am quoting now from John Costella’s Climategate Emails site, linked in the opening paragraph:
That background now paves the way to our understanding the historic email which generations of schoolchildren to come will study as the 33 words which summarize one of the most serious scientific frauds in the history of Western science. Phil Jones [British head of CRU] to Ray Bradley, Mike Mann, Malcolm Hughes, Keith Briffa, and Tim Osborn, regarding a diagram for a World Meteorological Organization Statement:
“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temperatures to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”
What does that mean – “hide the decline?” According to those prestigious groups that investigated and dismissed Climategate as a non-issue, exonerating the participants, it means nothing. The “trick” is merely scientific shop talk, we are told. Just move along.
Please watch the video below – it is but a five minute clip. It is part of a a talk given by Richard A. Muller, professor of physics at the University of California. Fast forward to 2:20 if you are short of time.
I know the tendency when reading blogs is to not depart to watch videos. I do that too. So below are two screen grabs from this clip. The first shows the data as presented by Mann to advance the hockey stick.
Notice on the far right of the screen temperatures have taken off in the 20th century after centuries of gradual decline. This is the essence of the AGW scare. Mann used tree ring data coupled with atmospheric increases in CO2. Tree ring data is not reliable in discerning historic temperatures. It does not even work well in the present and is not used for that purpose by most climatologists.
Starting with 1961 he had to depart from it, as it was not telling him what he needed to hear. At that point in the graph, he substituted what appears to me to be made-up data. Much of the Climategate body of emails that I read have to do with refusal to release this data to other researchers, notably Steve McIntyre. This graph is the heart of the matter. The scientists at CRU stonewalled other researchers, and for good reason.
In the image below, Muller has placed Mann’s data with the real data in the graph. This is what Mann was hiding. This is the nut of the matter, the essence of Climategate.
Do you see what “hiding the decline” meant? Do you see what the “trick” was? It was science fraud. Here is is out in the open, and yet the CRU and IPCC are still pushing AGW, still urging curbs on CO2 and carbon sequestration and credits. This is how corrupt we are. Ask yourself, how can Michael Mann, currently the director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, still have a job? Why is he not waiting your table or selling you groceries?
Below is another graph based on ice core data from Antarctica.
That’s a little blurry, a scan of an image from a book, and one probably sexed up to make it understandable to the non-scientific public. It shows 800,000 years of our planet’s history. The blue parts are the routine ice ages. The red peaks are the interglacial periods of warmth. On the far right is our current interglacial period. Note that it has been much warmer in past times. There is nothing new going on now, nothing unprecedented. We are merely lucky to be alive during a period of warmth.
However, if you need to worry about something, worry about that. Ice ages are real killers. We are 11,000 years into our current warm period, which typically last 10-15,000 years.
* Quoting John Costella